What’s About To Happen In Ukraine

Russia’s Optimal attack scenario, background image from New York Times, purple marks mine. Threaten Kyiv while crushing Ukraine’s main forces defending the east after a provocation.
Screenshot from Reuters — old data, but shows the contours of the human geography in Ukraine
  1. Neutralize the threat of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon
  2. Maintain control over the predominantly Russian-speaking Donbas
  3. Weaken NATO over the long run by proving its limitations
  4. Demonstrate America’s inability to act to actually defend allies
  5. Pull Ukraine into Russia’s orbit permanently
  • Russia makes several moves that keep a door open to negotiations and imply a willingness to back down
  • An accident or intentional attack kills Russian soldiers or Russian-speakers in Ukraine
  • Putin gives Zelensky an ultimatum, threatening a total invasion if he doesn’t accede to Russian demands
  • If Zelensky resists, separatists in Donbas begin making advances backed by Russian artillery and air strikes.
  • Putin denies an invasion is underway even as Ukraine’s forces are smashed from the air. If sanctions drop, he escalates by striking more of Ukraine’s military infrastructures. If Ukraine negotiates, the attacks stop.

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Andrew Tanner

Andrew Tanner

Rogue systems analyst, bestselling author. Pro-science anti-authority post-partisan rural cat fanatic, pronoun agnostic, married. West Coast = only coast :)