How 2024 Will Shape America’s Future

Biden-Trump and Biden-Obama Day 394 first-year polling averages from 538, a polling aggregator. Comments in red mine :)
Base Image from 538, Red bands mine. Polls just don’t move much anymore.
  1. Trump narrowly wins the electoral college while losing the popular vote again.
  2. Trump is installed for a second term thanks to state legislatures intervening after the election.
  3. A third party candidate wins enough electoral college votes in the right places to throw the election to Congress.
  4. The Democratic candidate manages another bare-bones electoral college win and it withstands Trump’s attempts to overturn it.
  • In 1 there are nationwide protests and a media obsession with whether GOP voting laws were responsible for suppressing a large chunk of the vote. Around 40% of Americans reject the legitimacy of Trump’s second term. Many Americans in Blue states flirt with the idea of secession.
  • For 2, nationwide protests an order of magnitude more vigorous and sustained than those in scenario 1 are probable. A majority of Americans reject the legitimacy of Trump’s second term. The Democrats launch every legal bid they can to prevent Trump’s inauguration and California, if not the entire West Coast and Hawai’i, sees leading Democratic politicians openly discuss seceding.
  • 3 is chaotic as the Contingent Election process hasn’t been used since the 19th century and no one would be sure what to expect. The House chooses from the three candidates with the most electoral college votes, creating a pathway for a compromise centrist candidate to be elevated to block Trump with bipartisan support. Does it work? I think so — but it might trigger widespread protests too. It’s hard to say how crazy the crazies will get.
  • And 4 sees the Republicans protest nationwide, decrying another “stolen election” while several Red state governors propose secession. In effect, it’s the unstable situation America is in now maintained for another four years — or until someone decides to pick up their ball and go home, so to speak, triggering a Constitutional crisis that may never end.

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Author, rogue systems analyst. True Neutral autistic pro-science anti-authoritarian rural cat fanatic, he/him/they, married. West Coast = Only Coast :)

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Andrew Tanner

Andrew Tanner

Author, rogue systems analyst. True Neutral autistic pro-science anti-authoritarian rural cat fanatic, he/him/they, married. West Coast = Only Coast :)

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