Ukraine’s New Road To Victory

Andrew Tanner
11 min readNov 28, 2023

It’s been a hard summer for Kyiv and winter looks to become bleaker yet, but important victories were won that keep Ukraine on the path to triumph — if it retains allied support.

As the media environment turns more grim than called for, it’s worth doing a bit of a reality check on the state of the Ukraine War. Having covered it from a systems science angle for nearly two years now on my blogs, I’ve already seen several of these narrative shifts — luckily they have less of an impact than popularly believed thanks to the unique nature of this conflict.

Nothing about Ukraine’s fight for freedom against Moscow’s imperial ambitions has changed since Putin made his ill-fated lunge for Kyiv. His goal remains the same: destroy and absorb Ukraine as part of an ideological project to revive the Soviet Union as it stood in 1946, including its colonial control over most of Eastern Europe.

Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is defined by the idea that the so-called “Russian World” extends everywhere Russian-speakers ever held sway for a time — this includes parts of the USA like Alaska and Cascadia. The Russian World has no borders in Putin’s mind, meaning that Moscow has the right to do whatever it wants to whomever it wants anywhere in the world.

Kill dissidents with nerve gas? Throw political opponents out of windows? Moscow is more than happy to make that happen where you live if it can. There has never been a terrorist threat like this one — yet Americans are still having their damn shoes checked at the airport!

This is the kind of monster that simply has to be defeated — left alone to recover it will attempt more imperial actions wherever it can. And make no mistake: Putin’s war can never end so long as he lives. The moment it does, his regime will have to account for the extraordinary costs. Even in a rank dictatorship like the ruscist empire the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives guarantees upheaval once the immediate foreign threat is vanquished.

That’s why it has to be assumed that after Ukraine, if he somehow were to win, Putin will come for a NATO member. He has seen how terrified Americans and western Europeans are of a Third World War and now leverages fear of it and the nuclear conflict everyone assumes is inevitable to score incremental wins.

Like Nazi Germany, Putin’s ruscist state is a creature constructed out of and sustained by pure violence. It is Mordor as Tolkien saw the thing…