The Peril of Cliodynamics

Can history predict the future? The Atlantic asks. Nope, says objective science — the attractive dream of Turchin’s predictive Cliodynamic theory has some good points, yet overall remains dangerously wrong.

Nashhinton’s reproduction of mathematical model output from Cliodynamics theory.

A true systems framework that incorporates historical processes, however, can offer a powerful vision of what futures are more or less likely than others. Cliodynamics lacks this, and so fails.