Rolling Tsunami: Ukraine’s Liberation Campaign

Panicky much, orcs? You should be — the beatdown on the way is gonna hurt :)

General overview of Ukraine’s unfolding summer campaign — areas where Ukraine appears to have concentrated troops shaded, confirmed movements shown in solid blue arrows, potential exploitation avenues in hashed arrows.

Villages are being liberated south of Velkya Novosilka, where ruscist forces have long occupied a bulge in the front lines that posed a threat to the rear of the Ukrainian forces holding Donbas.

In Bakhmut pushes continue on the outskirts of the ruined city, the orcs who have camped inside vulnerable to fire from the heights to the west.

Wagner is on life support if not dead in Ukraine, Moscow clamping down on the independent military groups it allows to proliferate last year to compensate for chronic personnel shortages but now perceives as a threat.

Of course, this isn’t the entire story — which is only natural, given that Ukraine has committed only a fraction of its forces. But the interwebs have been aflame the past few days as people respond in hilarious ways to the first images of wrecked NATO-supplied armored vehicles.

Putin’s propagandists have come alive, pushing images of destroyed and captured Leopards and Bradleys across every social media channel they can still access, especially Twitter.

Some commentators — mainly Americans, it seems — have taken to insisting that this proves Ukrainian troops are not trained as well as they should be. Others happily point to the destruction of US and German gear to avoid talking about how Soviet equipment is mostly rolling human barbecues — Ukrainians can at least escape their vehicles intact most of the time.

Notably, members of the supposedly pro-Ukraine think tank community, folks like Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, have been amplifying Moscow’s propaganda. I expect this is an attempt to preserve their status as public experts the media can run to for cheap quotes — the ambition of many an academic in America.

But anyone with a shred of real scientific training should be able to understand a very simple concept: one or even a few drone videos released by Putin’s regime does not constitute meaningful evidence.

The same is true of Ukrainian footage — the difference is that they usually release more and have a better track record of honesty than Moscow.