Jul 30, 2021
How to Save American Democracy: Break Up the Federal Government
So it seems I touched a nerve with my last essay on this topic.
Tens of thousands of people came to read it — which is pretty cool… if a little depressing given what that means about the real state of American democracy.
Y’know, the place most of us live, not the theoretical version pundits and politicians and tooo many scholars like to mythologize.
Now, in my last essay I made a pretty big claim: that for the good of the world the United States federal government should be split up.
This follow-up essay lays out a simple scientific case for why splitting up the federal government is the best chance of salvaging Democracy in the United States of America.
And as a bonus, all but eliminate the fast-rising odds of a descent into violence of a kind no one should hope to experience.
I have studied and even published peer reviewed work on governance during my years in academia.
One of my longtime side projects has been developing a holistic, systematic explanation for why America has been more or less driving straight off a cliff for most of my adult life.
Longer, in truth, but I don’t think anyone would dispute at this point that events have rather… accelerated, of late.
I can offer a unique pathway out of the increasingly dangerous political crisis the country is in that doesn’t rely on making moral judgements about people’s worldviews or trying to change their party affiliation — something no amount of rational argument can accomplish, I’m afraid.
Now laying out an entire scientific theory would be, well… immensely boring for almost every conceivable reader who is not a complete nerd like myself.
Your time is scarce and therefore valuable. I respect that.
So for the sake of getting the point across to a broader audience, here’s the short version of my case.
American democracy is on the verge of collapse as a result of a toxic intersection between its two party system and for-profit news industry.
Broadly speaking, this has dramatically calcified America’s government in an era of extremely rapid global change.
Because so many powerful players have a direct stake in the outcome of every political decision and negative partisanship — basically, voting for one party because you hate the other — is so profitable these days, it is way, way too easy for a few interests to gum up the system and create a stalemate on important issues.
Even though pretty much everyone knows and agrees reform is necessary, the system is locked so tight, the players so deeply invested in their positions, that all fear any systematic change will harm them more than the other side.
This kind of process is not new — it has brought down many other large, wealthy nations of history before, and will again.
Complex systems evolve through a regular four-step process: rapid growth, slow growth, collapse, reorganization.
Think of them as Spring-Summer-Autumn-Winter, if you like.
People and groups invest when the future looks bright, cultivate the best performing ones as growth begins to slow, preserve what they can as the weather cools and everyone heads indoors, and survive through the winter until heading back out to start the cycle anew.
The cycle is inevitable — but it can be managed to mitigate the impacts much like the cycle of a piston firing in an engine creates useful energy that can be directed to a purpose.
Cycles can also be prolonged — eventually forming what is called a rigidity trap. A kind of metabolic crisis where the system keeps trying to grow despite the changing season and winds up consuming itself.
And not because anyone wants this outcome. But because they are people who have a hard time perceiving the full consequences of their choices.
And because their daily working lives are impacted by warped incentive structures that make it both dangerous and disruptive to do anything different.
American politics has been locked in a rigidity trap for decades, consuming more and more money and time but producing less and less of value each year.
Meanwhile half of Americans live just a couple breaths away from poverty. Students have to take on massive debt to get a college degree, which is now a passport to a career track where you might one day pay it all off.
The lucky ones get so rich by making the bet on the right friend or stock tip that they don’t have to care care, while the majority faces a lifelong grind.
Government in America is failing because the political system is frozen. The two national parties are locked like great tectonic plates, each side accelerating its efforts to hold onto what it’s got and mobilizing its supporters to feel their lives are being existentially threatened by the other side.
Which they are, because the parties are locked in a rhetorical arms race, both claiming that the other is trying to subvert democracy.
Argue as much as you like about how true this really is, once these claims begin to be made the natural solution one side will inevitably choose is to actually try and do it, because they sincerely believe if they don’t the other side will do it to them.
That is the consquence of the American media turning politics into a team sport, and a bloodsport at that. A choice made in the interest of profit that has turned 1/3 of Americans off from participating in democracy at all.
That’s where the world’s former shining beacom of freedom is today. And this situation is manifestly not sustainable.
It is literally getting Americans killed as even responding to a pandemic becomes part of the day-to-day political calculus.
America’s national-level elected leaders are like teenage drivers playing chicken with two raving crowds egging them on — and worse, this weird theater has material consequences for society: everyone has a deep personal stake in the outcome because they all believe the winner will control the federal government.
The Capitol Attack proved some are so invested they are willing to engage in violence to make sure their side wins. Recent polling shows around 40% of Americans think violence may soon be necessary to preserve “the American way of life.”
This is exactly why civil wars happen. A particularly terrible form of national collapse, the kind that ended Second America in so much blood 4 out of 10 Southern and 1 out of 10 Northern men died.
This spiral must be terminated before America sees worse violence than it already has.
The two party system emerged and is sustained because of the architecture of the Constitution, a consequence of the way America’s election rules work the Founders couldn’t have foreseen.
The for-profit news media companies, being required by shareholders to pursue profit at any cost, have chosen to achieve that by investing in a sportsified way of covering American politics.
Any issue, any concern, gets swept into a mutually-reinforcing maelstrom of political grandstanding and clickbait articles.
There is now virtually no hope of systematic reform at the national level — for a third party to break this iron bind between politicians and media would require many, many billions of dollars committed to a non-profit, transparent, independent organization with its own social media platform and solid non-partisan leadership.
And building that in time to avert the likely disaster of a bitterly contested election result that could descend into open civil conflict is a dicey prospect.
The best available solution is to force reform on D.C. from the state level by calling an Article V Constitutional Convention to debate adopting a simply-worded Amendment that breaks up the federal government into regional groups each with their own devolved federal government.
A residual supra-national Council of Presidents can be retained to cover truly national issues like the nuclear deterrent and common defense in case of direct attack, the federal reserve and value of the dollar, and ensuring that people and goods can move freely across regional borders.
But beyond that — Fifth America needs to become Regional America, looking something like this:
There are other options for a split, of course — but this creates the most compact, culturally-aligned regions where one side has a clear majority of the electorate.
Here’s some vital stats about population, economy (with closest international comparison), politics, and natural foreign policy area of responsibility for each:
- Atlantic
Population: 72.3 million
Economy: $5.5 trillion (Japan), $77,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 22D-2R, House 74D-24R, 2020 Vote 21.6m D-14.9m R
International: Europe focus, defense budget $220 billion - Great Lakes
Population: 34.2 million
Economy: $2.2 trillion (Italy), $63,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 7D-1R, House 27D-21R, 2020 Vote 9.6m D-8.2m R
International: East Africa focus, defense budget $80 billion - Mountain
Population: 9.3 million
Economy: 0.5 trillion (Norway), $58,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 1D-13R, House 0D-11R, 2020 Vote 1.6m D-2.6m R
International: North America focus, defense budget $10 billion - Ohio River
Population: 31.7 million
Economy: 1.7 $Trillion (Brazil), $55,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 2D-8R, House 8D-33R, 2020 Vote 6.1mD-8.6m R
International: North America focus, defense budget $60 billion - Pacific
Population: 53.1 million
Economy: $4.1 trillion (Germany), $77,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 8D-0R, House 55D-15R, 2020 Vote 15.2m D-8.7m R
International: Pacific focus, defense budget $160 billion - Plains
Population: 55.6 million
Economy: $3.3 trillion (United Kingdom), $59,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 0D-16R, House 18D-51R, 2020 Vote 10.4m D-13.4m R
International: West Asia focus, defense budget $120 billion - Southeast
Population: 56.7 million
Economy: 2.9 trillion (France), $51,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 2D -10R, House 25D-47R, 2020 Vote 12.9m D-14.5m R
International: West Africa focus, defense budget $100 billion - Southwest
Population: 18.7 million
Economy: 1.1 trillion (Mexico), $56,000 per capita
Politics: Senate 8D-0R, House 14D-9R, 2020 Vote 4.7m D- 4.1m R
International: South America focus, defense budget $30 billion
Each Region gets the Constitution and its share of the existing federal government — including the existing elected officials from each state. The federal bureaucracy — including the active-duty military — will be apportioned according to each region’s share of the national economy.
This will work because it would force a complete and total reset on both the national parties and national media.
Their business models would have to change to be far more responsive to local concerns constantly neglected by the national obsession with the never-ending drama in D.C.
Better and more responsive democracy everywhere would be the result.
Even foreign policy would benefit — instead of a wobbly country with a chronic lack of focus, allies abroad would work with a smaller but more streamlined defense force. Equipment and training would be localized, not one-size-fits-all procurement programs directed from the Pentagon by lobbyists.
Now, a key question you should be asking is: why would state-level parties agree to go along with this? Especially ones that would find themselves in the minority?
Because parties are really just giant brands, national political franchises who employ politicians in every jurisdiction to attract donors and voters. Wealthy donors are like shareholders, not all-powerful but certainly influential when it matters.
Most politicians are professional fundraisers these days. They’re required to be by their party leaders. They are brand ambassadors using the slogans they’re told to in order to sell their party to voters in their district.
Some play-act as mavericks, but this is a trope, a role. Most do as their told, and in exchange, they get goodies like gerrymandered districts, spin support from allied pundits in times of need, attention from well-funded lobbyists, and the potential for advancement so long as they play the game well and put in their dues.
And the game is driven by national-level forces fed by clickbait-chasing on the part of media organizations desperate to please Facebook’s algorithm and audience-chasing by political entrepreneurs — also on social media.
National parties develop slogans and rhetoric to connect with donors and voters, saying whatever they think will fly in order to juice turnout when the time comes. Local party organizations have to work within the confines of a restrictive national debate.
But as the saying goes — all politics is local. At least, all meaningful politics in a democratic society is.
And the national brand identity of each party is now a huge obstacle to healthy local politics.
Politicians use rhetoric to communicate with a broad audience. They always tailor it to maximize the appeal of what they’re saying among whoever they’re targeting while minimizing the danger of a gaffe the other side can use to attack them.
Medicare for All, Protect the Southern Border, Defund the Police, even Black Lives Matter are rhetorical statements meant to signify where someone stands on an issue. They’re the same as team slogans, a way to say “I’m one of you!”
Useful — but to develop rhetoric that can appeal on a national level right now is close to impossible because of real and growing differences in regional political culture.
Almost anything you say will bother someone, somewhere, and in the team-sports style of politics Americans have been trained to think is the only kind anyone who offends a member of one team automatically offends every member.
Turns out, that’s a really, really bad model for politics. Where sometimes issues really are life and death, so people act accordingly.
People are diverse. And in a country of 333 million people, the two major parties are bound to be too.
Each is made up of several different wings that cooperate — barely — to form the national party. Democrats have their Progressive, Liberal, and Moderate factions, Republicans are split into Conservatives, Evangelicals, and Trumpists.
And each wing has its own geographic appeal, tied to a region’s history and balance between urban, suburban, and rural residents.
Pick a local issue that goes national and witness the pattern— A media storm ensues, and suddenly everyone who might actually secretly see middle ground has to publicly cheer on their team come what may, alienating themselves from prospective voters.
In a multi-party system, where seats in the legislature are allocated to each party based on the proportion of the voters who voted for them, America could easily sustain four to six separate parties, each with regional strongholds.
Most laws would be passed by coalitions, allowing everybody to win some battles and lose some without being permanently shut out of power.
It would be much more difficult to permanently demonize half of the American population, because on any given issue you might suddenly find your enemy on another front is now your best friend.
That can’t happen in the locked American system we have now, and so its democracy is withering.
Right now people are scared — on all sides. And this fear is justified — no one has lived through anything like what is happening right now except the few remaining survivors of the Greatest Generation.
A lot could happen in the next decade that would change the country — and world — forever.
Naturally in times like these people turn to the political process to express their fear and demand their elected officials do something.
Which is ironically and tragically creating an incredible growth market for those politicians and news organizations able to maintain their readers in a state of existential angst.
Everyone else either has checked out or wants to but is afraid of what they might wake up to in three or four years.
The fear is self-sustaining. And it won’t end until the political system is reformed to become more democratic.
Whether you care about more accountable democracy, smaller government, avoiding unnecessary wars, economic growth, social justice, or the environment, this reboot of the American federal government allows you to organize more locally, insulated from the concerns of people who don’t understand your region.
I’m writing about this not because I’m happy about the solution but because I don’t see any other way to avoid a nightmare over the coming decade and even beyond.
In the best likely case, the next 4–8 years are a complete muddle that sees the United States federal government split into two zones. Little will get done, the country will likely sleepwalk into a major conflict with a foreign power.
In the middle case, the country breaks up peacefully but permanently. First into two blocs, then these will dissolve once hopes for reintegration fade.
In the worst, there’s violence on the level of Syria or Ukraine as first the federal government, then divided state governments, are torn apart.
I am arguing that Americans should shoot for a middle-good solution that relieves political pressures by forcing reform on the system while holding the door open for reconciliation and greater unity in the future.
Just like the European Union’s member states, the states of the United States will always be linked by their common history and have no reason to fight one another ever again.
How much we share a government is a question that should always be subject to democratic debate.
There is always an alternative. And in time, some alternative will become reality.
The choices made now by all of us will determine the future we’ll soon inhabit.
If you agree — share the idea. If like-minded people figure out a way to pool resources and get something started, that’d be hella cool, as we’d say in the part of California where I grew up.
The two parties have had their time, and their chance.
Now it’s time for something new.
We split up the federal government, and we make them change. And better still: the political system each autonomous federal region would inherit would swiftly reform itself.
Blue-leaning Americans in a Red State or Red-leaners in a Blue one would be freed from the parts of their meta-side’s rhetoric that alienates the middle-of-the-road voters that are the true majority nearly everywhere.
Once the national knot is cut, each local party will immediately realign in tone and focus. Democrat and Republican will take on a more natural regional meaning. And every new devolved federal government will face heavy pressure to make systematic reforms that will prevent instability from threatening people’s lives and livelihoods.
Suddenly liberated from the normal incentive structures that make the two party system so vicious, practical voices will be in demand. A reckoning will begin, where peaceful mass public participation will again have a chance to influence politicians and tell them what kind of government Americans in a region will want.
And this will take place in a unique time in American history: a moment where everyone will be able to watch developments in every region. If they sincerely feel they fit better in another, regions can establish funded programs to help people switch places.
In short — politics would be normal again. Not fun, not without consequence, but functional.
America would finally get a badly needed, century-overdue reboot.
The hard truth about the American federal government is that under their watch it has degenerated into a clearinghouse for the interests of wealthy lobbyists who fight to make sure their employers get favorable regulations and tax breaks.
1/3 of Americans don’t vote, because to vote in the present context means to join a side — and when that only exposes you to attacks from the partisans you upset, why bother?
Lots of people have family, friends, and acquaintances on both of these forced sides.
Rather than have to deal with difficult fights all the time, they tune out or just nod along — and with no judgement from me, because the whole thing does make a person feel incredibly powerless.
American politics is now a hybrid of reality tv and sports where you are told you can pay to boost your team’s chances — and feel like you have to in order to survive.
Even while the game itself is what’s driving the country to destruction as nothing truly substantial gets accomplished.
Oh, sure, there will finally be a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And the Democrats will likely manage to hold together long enough to ram through a list of programs they like to claim that Joe Biden is FDR or LBJ 2.0 while Republicans insist he’s secretly Jimmy Carter.
And all that money will filter through a bunch of megacorporations who will eat up most of the benefits, then in 2023 the Republicans will tank all they can.
Most Americans will see little of the benefits that do make it through — but many will suffer from the price increases happening now.
Middle class folks can tolerate it, especially when they are refinancing their mortgages to historically low rates amid a housing boom. Those on the margins can’t — a huge proportion of their budget already goes to necessities like food and water and rent.
Anger at those in power is only going to rise without real reform.
The national metabolic crisis will accelerate and politics will get even more divisive and dangerous, particularly with the Democrats as eager to hype foreign threats as the Republicans.
There are any number of non-partisan changes to the structure of American government that could be made to break the feedback loops making the country impossible to govern. Here’s a few that many have suggested over the years:
- Publicly funded campaigns — any candidate who passes a polling threshold gets cash and guaranteed media airtime
- Adopt a parliamentary-style multi-party legislature — any party that can turn out enough voters gets seats
- Dramatically expand the number of states — separate strongly rural and urban areas to make the Senate more accountable
- Expand the Supreme Court, with new Justices selected by a panel with equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents
- Make the Presidency a non-partisan position or replace it with a 9-member council
Trouble is, all would threaten a status quo that is presently funneling billions to special interests and have to be done on the federal level.
Which means dealing with America’s broken federal Congress.
It is incredibly unlikely that we will ever see meaningful reform come out of D.C. unless by some miracle a wildly popular third party emerges capable of uniting at least half of the people who don’t regularly vote with disaffected members of the Progressive and Conservative wings.
Possible with enough cash and the right message, but unprecedented, so naturally difficult to get the initial base of support required — and possibly not lasting.
Washington D.C. is like the Ring of Power in Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings. Claiming it just continues the cycle of conflict and misery.
The only way to defeat concentration of political power is to dissolve it in the fire of true democratic reform.
Do this, and everywhere you will see a sudden shift in tone as politicians and voters all try to feel their way forward, no longer able to rely on demonizing the other side to rally support. No more blaming California for the troubles of Alabama.
No more excuses for the federal politicians.
Would they like it? Not at first. But as with exercise, the end result will be worth the temporary pain.
How to get it done?
The key, as with everything, is organization, resources, and enthusiasm.
Given those a movement could be built state-by-state in perhaps only one to three years.
Just enough time to Amend the Constitution and break up the federal government before 2024 can rip the country apart .
Or, at the very least, be ready to move in 2025 if events proceed as they seem determined to.
There are currently 38 states with trifecta governments — the same party controls the state legislature, senate, and governor’s office. Almost 80% of Americans live in a trifecta state.
And as that recent poll by Brightlinewatch shows, almost 40% of Americans would actively consider outright secession — and not just in the South, where you might expect that sentiment to be the majority opinion.
If after the 2022 Midterms Blue state residents begin to feel that Red state elections were not democratic, which seems likely, expect the numbers in Pacific and Atlantic America to skyrocket.
After all, Pacific America’s four core states (Alaska is more Mountain, despite having a coast) host about 18% of the population yet only get 8 of 100 Senators. This is already undemocratic — and not the Founders Intent —a situation badly exacerbated by the Electoral College.
Instead of secession, pass a Constitutional Amendment that simply breaks up the entire federal government of the United States.
Simple. Clean. Effective.
And as the country is already physically governed on a regional basis — that’s why if you interact with the IRS or FBI or USDA you don’t typically have to go to D.C. —matches up the actual mechanics of American governance with the electorate.
Another democratic reform long overdue in this country.
Those are your options, America. Choose carefully. I think Regional America is, if not the best, the least bad.
And nothing says in ten years we can’t reunite by amending the Constitution again.
Call it a trial separation, if you like.
