Breakthrough In Ukraine: The Surovikin Line On The Brink

Andrew Tanner
10 min readSep 1

Despite an astonishing level of negging from the US media, Ukraine’s Summer Campaign has been achieving what it set out to all along. This September, Putin’s life is about to get even worse.

Base image from deepstatemap. Arrows mine. Yellow marks what NATO types are saying Ukraine will do. Blue is what I think they’re after.

Over on Substack a few other analysts of the Ukraine war, like retired Australian general Mick Ryan and UK professor of strategic studies Phillip OBrien, have been offering assessments of Ukraine’s progress that held this moment was coming — but only after Kyiv’s forces had some time to reduce the ruscist defenses on the Azov Front.

A lot of folks back in June appear to have thought that Ukraine’s march to the Azov coast had to succeed in a matter of days or be pronounced a failure. This is understandable, as precious few people outside of Ukraine have the slightest idea of what this kind of war is like.

I only myself have a slightly less dim view because of enlisted service in the combat arms coupled to a lifetime autistic special interest in military affairs. I’ve also got doctoral-level training in scientific methods, which I apply on Rogue Systems Recon to help people understand what’s really going on in this war — as well as where it’s heading.

To put it simply, Ukraine is having to MacGuyver a World War 2 level campaign without a modern air force and only a token quantity of up-to-date tanks and other armored vehicles for its ground forces. Kyiv’s allies did the bare minimum this spring and it shows: a year and a half into this war Ukraine could already have F-16s guarding its skies except for the weak-kneed flop that has been the Biden Administration’s policy for pretty much everything.

There is a very good reason that Ukraine’s leaders are inviting anyone who would like to prove they can do better to come and put their lives on the line. Think-tank scholars who parachute in to do some interviews then head back to their comfortable countries at peace to insist that Ukraine can’t win because it doesn’t follow NATO doctrine closely enough are bottom feeders of the worst sort.

You find them everywhere in academia, people who are building a brand by pretending they’re scientific experts. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, I’m onto you — those of us with real expertise and actual concern for Ukraine’s people see you for…

Andrew Tanner

Writes Rogue Systems Recon on Substack. Cat fanatic. Author of many books. Anti-partisan. West Coast = Only Coast :P Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!