A Neutral View On Ukraine’s Future

Well done, brave defenders of Ukraine — you get to keep your country… most of it, anyway.

The pathetic rah-rah jingoism that has taken over the media since Putin launched his assault on Ukraine is difficult to cut through, but this much is now clear: Ukraine will survive.

Ukraine — Northern Front as of March 30, 2022, from Wiki Commons by Viewsridge. Ukraine approximate positions and counterattack targets mine. Black box marks Kyiv theater. Note the Russian spearheads from north of Sumy in the east — they’ve been stuck for weeks, likely experiencing constant attacks on supply lines. However this is flat country, and a concerted effort to wipe out Ukrainian forces surrounded by Russian advances is possible.

The cost has been atrocious, but such is life. War is resource conflict, and life itself is a kind of war…